The differences between HBO series and novels allow for some speculation on which Game of Thrones characters could perish in The Winds of Winter. George R.R. Martin’s long-awaited sequel to his beloved A Song of Ice and Fire series has left fans waiting since the previous installment was released in July 2011. The TV adaptation has come and gone since, providing its version of how the tale might end. Based on the events of the final few seasons of Game of Thrones and the seeds George R.R. Martin seems to have been planting throughout the novel, many characters could conceivably die.

George R.R. Martin’s work is notorious for taking no prisoners, and the penultimate novel seems like a proper moment to end with a graveyard. For the most part, where the books left off is roughly the end of Game of Thrones season 5. Characters like Jojen Reed, Myrcella Baratheon, and Barristan Selmy, who’d died by that point in the TV series, are still up in the books. In other cases, characters are in different positions than in the series, which could change their fates.

13Tommen Baratheon

The Iron Throne puts a gigantic target on Tommen.

In Game of Thrones, Tommen Baratheon ends his own life following the wildfire explosion of the Sept of Baelor, which kills his wife. In A Dance With Dragons, much of the conflict with High Sparrow has ensued similarly, and Varys has just had Pycelle and Kevan Lannister killed to weaken the throne for Aegon’s invasion. Without Kevan’s presence, the Lannisters and Tyrells are set to destroy each other in King’s Landing, with either that or a Targaryen invasion leading to Tommen’s death.

12Myrcella Baratheon

Maggy the Frog’s prophecy will come true.

Myrcella Baratheon dies at the end of Game of Thrones after being poisoned by the Sand Snakes, shortly after accepting Jaime as her birth father. The entire Dorne storyline is quite different A Feast for Crows, and her death could happen in the southern region or back in King’s Landing. Due to the Maggy the Frog prophecy, Myrcella’s death is imminent.

11Stannis Baratheon

Stannis is in a dangerous position in the North.

Stannis Baratheon’s days are likely numbered as the final surviving King from the War of Five Kings. In the early released chapters of The Winds of Winter, Stannis Baratheon prepares for battle with the Bolton forces. While it’s possible he could die to the Boltons like in the series, critical differences in his character and position in Martin’s novels make either outcome possible. Season 5 of Game of Thrones sees Stannis turn to cruelty and desperation, neither of which are the case in A Dance with Dragons. If Stannis doesn’t die to the Boltons, him turning North and dying to the Others is another option.

10Shireen Baratheon

Shireen’s death in the show was a plot idea from George R.R. Martin.

Game of Thrones’ saddest death will be different in The Winds of Winter, deviating from Shireen Baratheon’s horrifying death in the TV series at the hands of her father and Melisandre. In the books, Shireen hasn’t accompanied Stannis on his march to Winterfell from the Wall, which is when she was killed on the show. In a book about the behind-the-scenes work on Game of Thrones, titled Fire Cannot Kill A Dragon, a quote from Martin suggests that “Stannis’ decision to burn his daughter” was a plot thread he’d informed David Benioff and D.B. Weiss about, meaning something similar will happen soon in the novels.

9Hodor

George R.R. Martin has discussed Hodor’s death.

Hodor had a famous death in one of the most emotional Game of Thrones moments, holding the door from an onslaught of Wights long enough for Bran to escape. George R.R. Martin compared the show’s version to how he’d planned it in the book, revealing a spoiler for The Winds of Winter. He said, “So telling Hodor to ‘hold the door’ is more like ‘hold this pass’ — defend it when enemies are coming — and Hodor is fighting and killing them,” implying Hodor would be wielding a sword and fighting off the Others

8Three-Eyed Crow

There’s more to the Three-Eyed Crow than in the TV series.

The Three-Eyed Crow, also known as Brynden Rivers, is the book version of the show’s Three-Eyed Raven. He plays a similar role, living in a cave with the children of the forest and mentoring Bran in greensight. Based on the Hodor quote, it’s fair to assume similar events will transpire with Bran’s training north of the Wall, and they’ll eventually have to flee south. If the Three-Eyed Crow dies in The Winds of Winter, his story will hopefully be more developed than the show’s counterpart, given Martin’s time exploring Brynden’s past.